Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 1

[AFLGuru]

Greetings once again. Not too terrible of a card in week 1, though I don't see that "game" to get the 5* approval. Games to wager this weekend. (Note: All times are EST and all lines are from Pinnacle)

Friday 7:00: Nashville Kats (+4) @ Columbus (4 units -105): Nashville gets a bit of a gift from the AFL, as this is their first game as a franchise since it was moved to Georgia. A lot of the same characters from the teams that went to back to back Arena Bowls returned to the squad, taking on a vulnerable Columbus team, lead by former Chicago backup Chad Salisbury. Nashville is going to be a rough and tough team this year, getting lots of pressure on the quarterback. Leon Murray needs to pick up his game like he did at the end of last season. If he can prevent from turning the ball over, except this game to be really close throughout. Wouldn't surprise me if Nashville wins this puppy outright.

Sunday 12:00: Orlando Predators (-3) vs. Colorado Crush (4 units -105): Orlando starts off the season with a bastard of a schedule. This game features the Preds taking on last season's semifinalist, Colorado, who improved from the year before's 2 win mark to be one of the best in the AFL last year. Fortunately for me, I got this game at -2.5, but for record-keeping purposes here, I'll stick with the 3 and find value in it. Don't be afraid of the number at all. Remember the higher scoring in the AFL leads to strange looking numbers as finals. Anyway, John Dutton struggled last year at QB for Colorado against teams with high powered defenses. Only on the grace of John Fitzgerald being terrible did they beat New Orleans last season. Orlando has an amazing winning percentage at home, and always comes out of the gate tough. Again, a close game, but the closer the game in the 4th quarter, the more likely the hometown crowd will propel the Preds to a victory.

Friday 7:30: Arizona Rattlers @ Grand Rapids Rampage over 91 (3 units -110): Arizona and Grand Rapids square off in a week 1 bout that screams a one-sided game in favor of Arizona. Grand Rapids got hammered by many teams last year. However, a new head coach paired with the addition of former Los Angeles offensive standout Chris Jackson should improve on last season's dismal record and even more dismal offensive output. Shredrick Bonner likes to take shots downfield for the Rattlers, and they should have no problem hanging at least 55 on the Rampage. I think Grand Rapids keeps this game within the number (13), but not by enough to make me take the Rampage. I feel safer taking the over, as Bonner paired with one of the more experienced (and talented) receiving corps in the AFL can drop 55-60 on anyone. Grand Rapids just needs to be mediocre on offense to get to this number. Don't expect to see Arizona and an o/u of under 95 the rest of the season. Consider this an early season gift and go on with life. If I was more confident in Grand Rapids' offensive ability to score more than 40, I'd be all over this one.

Sunday 12:00: Philadelphia Sol (-7) @ Austin Wranglers (3 units -101): Philadelphia is a big wild card this year with the addition of the AFL's best QB, Tony Graziani. 99 TDs last season led Los Angeles to one of the best offenses in AFL history. At any given game, Graziani could throw for 7 scores and drop 70 on the scoreboard. Don't expect Philly's offense to be AS explosive this season, but they'll average over 55 a game. Austin is in shambles without quarterback John Kaleo at the helm anymore. Though Austin was a trendy upset team last season, I expect the luster to wear off. All over the field Philly has the better side, and I expect them to handlely win this game. Philly's defense will force a couple turnovers, and that will be the difference... 10-14 points. Graziani just doesn't turn the ball over. Philly in the most lopsided game of the weekend.

Sunday 3:00: Los Angeles Avengers @ Las Vegas Gladiators under 103.5 (2 units -105): Too high of a number in this one. Los Angeles isn't going to average 60 a game this season. John Kaleo doesn't have nearly the arm of Tony Graziani and Chris "Ding Dong" Doering isn't anywhere near as good as Chris Jackson. Missing those two should cost LA at least a touchdown a game. Though Clint Dolezel and Marcus Nash were a great combination last year, getting to 60 might not produce the point total needed in this one. A couple stops for Las Vegas on the Avengers makeshift offense will cause more time to run off of that clock. The hope is that LV has the ball late in the game up a score or so to help melt the rest of the game away. Small unit risk here, as there are a lot of questions in Los Angeles.

Best of luck on all of your action this week.

--AFLGuru

 

[Marco]

I like that play on the over in the AZ game.....

Contemplating a teaser in that game with the dog and the over......you think they can hang around with 20 or so points?

 

[KennyB]

Nice Looking card. I have taken a look at all of the AFL rosters to see the turnover and I especially look at who the QB's will be.

I took Nashville +4 but also teased it up.
I like Tampa at home getting 7 (did it at 8 also).

Good luck this year. I will be checking out your plays and I appreciate your analysis.

 

[AFLGuru]

Marco--

Careful with teasing big dogs in the AFL. Every week the AFL seems to produce a real lopsided game... 24+ points difference. Grand Rapids got shelled last year quite a lot, especially with Michael Bishop at QB. I do believe they'll stick within the number given (13) against Arizona, especially at home, but I keep going back to their game with San Jose last season when they were 22.5 point dogs at open. The public bet the game down to 21. San Jose won by 30. I could easily see Grand Rapids getting blown out by anyone on the schedule, but I just don't think this is gonna be the game. Probably a smart teaser.

KennyB--

Thought about taking Tampa straight up. Tim Marcum always gets his troops ready for the big games, and it certainly doesn't get much bigger than hosting the defending champs (and perennial powerhouse). Just logically speaking, though, San Jose has a good history with Tampa, typically jumping out to early leads and letting Tampa inch back in the game, only to put them away in the end. Such example occured last season in the playoffs in San Jose when Tampa was down I believe 17 in the first half and only lost by a TD, in Tampa during the middle of last season when San Jose was up as many as 24 before Tampa took the lead in the second half only to get put away by 2 late Stafford picks, and two years ago in the postseason when Tampa simply got shlomped by the Saberkitties. History is clearly on the SaberCats side to win this one. Kicking will play a big part in the cover. Tampa has had the most problems with kickers in the game the past two seasons (see: 5 kickers last season). One missed extra point and this game could finish San Jose by 8 very easily. But I won't fade Tampa in Tampa against anyone this season.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Roxygurl]

afl already i love it aflguru! your right tim marcum is a great coach and his teams dont make many mistakes. hey your not concerned about betting right out of the gate with no pre season or any real prep time? wow. i have 2 good friends in the league . albrey battle is an OL for the sabercats and really excited for the year. and scott thomas is a WR who signed this year with the avengers. hes excited too. he does say theres a strange atmosphere surrounding the team with all the changes they made. he was put on IR to begin the season but its his own fault. hes a huge surfer and had a mishap a few weeks ago.lol.officially he sprained a knee in practice(wink wink).kaleo is a proven leader but hes got alot of miles on those legs.maybe i'll place a what the hell bet this weekend. gl!

 

[AFLGuru]

Roxy--

First off, we do have most teams partaking in at least one intra-squad scrimmage up to now. For example, Tampa played Orlando last week in a scrimmage and T.T. Toliver tore his MCL, likely causing him to miss the entire season. So SOME things we know. However, most of the stiffs play most of the game (as seen why in the Toliver injury) thus we have very little read. HOWEVER... This is the EXACT same information the books have on these teams. L.A. got A TON of respect from the books when their line with Las Vegas opened... L.A. was -1. Now they're +5.5. They're going to find out things by letting bettors set up lines, and we're going to hit them hard for it before they knew what hit them.

No one knows what's going on with Nashville, but Pat Sperdudeo (pardon my awful spelling) has coached Nashville before and was very successful at it. He took this gunslinger Andy Kelly, and turned him into one of the game's greats. Jarrick Hillary is back, as is James Baron. By my estimation, Nashville is a better team on paper than Columbus is, especially with Chad Salisbury at the helm. And why is Columbus favored? Trust me, Vegas will get the Kats right before year's end.

Thanks for the feedback and best of luck with your action. Hope the Avengers have a better year than the experts tend to think for ya.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[HinesWard86]

Honestly, Chad Salisbury has looked GREAT so far in Columbus, that's why they cut Ryan Vena. Personally, I'm going to take Columbus in this one, but I like the Orlando play and the Over play in the Rampage-Rattlers game. I'm a bit cautious about playing under in the Gladiators-Avengers game especially because Marcus Nash is THE best receiver in the AFL and like you said, Chris Doering might have some success because history tells us that former NFL players do make it in these "minor" leagues (Joey Hamilton, Nash, and even guys in the CFL like John Avery and Dave Dickenson).
That's just my $0.02 though AFL, but I'm ready to ride with you.

 

[AFLGuru]

BrownsFan--

I give Chad Salisbury a lot of grief because he played miserably last season against San Jose in the playoffs. Every time he steps on the field it seems like something really bad happens. He's almost gotta be better than Ryan Vena last season. Honestly, I can't believe they never looked to ditch him last year. None of the receivers really strike fear in me, and I think this game should be more along the lines of a pick 'em. Stat on this game: Last 5 expansion teams in their first game as a franchise... 4-1 SU. I'll take my chances with the points.

Thanks for the feedback

-AFLGuru:toast:

 

[spreadbeater]

AFL GURU,

How many units were you ahead last year? Thanks

SB

 

[HinesWard86]

Guru, you thinking about any other plays this weekend? I was thinking about over in the Colorad0/Orlando game

 

[RDC-3]

this is the first time I have checked out any Arena cappers. were you around last year guru? and what kind of record did you produce? Thanks for all your help....best of luck this season!

 

[AFLGuru]

First of BrownsFan--

Don't get caught up in such the low number in the Orlando game. Though the general reports on arenafootball.com states that both offenses are supposed to be amongst the elite in the game, Orlando simply rushes the passer like it's no one's business. The Preds typically play these games in the 80s, so to play an over in a Predator game I don't recommend unless it's a prototypical "big" game. In those "big" games, the Predators have this tendency to give up and score on big plays very quickly. Not a recommended play. I'm probably done for the weekend, but obviously, as more reports come out on the game and lines change, I may or may not have another play.

In response to my record last year, I honestly couldn't tell you about units. Last year I was more of an amateur bettor who didn't keep all too many records based on net (quite foolishly might I add). However, I can state that I hit 68% of my games ATS (excluding pushes in that), a number that I would LOVE to duplicate this year, but am realistic in a number closer to 60% this year. I did too many things with exotic parlays last year, and because I used SportsInteraction, I typically had to make decisions on games within about an hour of game time, causing my research to be more or less based off of gut feeling. That being said, I am going to bet FAR fewer games this year than I did in the past.

Hope that addresses everyone's concerns... oh, and this is my first year posting my picks publically. If you want some form of a "backup" to my record from last season, you can ask Budworth22, who is a roommate of mine at Florida State.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

BrownsFan--

A bit of a follow-up and some bones to chew on about that Orlando-Colorado game...

Orlando is 9-5 all-time in openers. They are 10-4 all-time in home opener's. 4-0 when the home opener IS the season opener. The past two times that the Preds opened at home, neither game even reached 70 points. The Preds ran the ball 9.7 times per game last season, which means clock moves at a faster pace. Though the clock doesn't stop in the AFL, Orlando takes more time off the clock than anyone else does between plays... almost Detroit Pistons-esque. Run the shot clock as far down as possible and then shoot. The Predators only completed 17 passes for over 30 yards last season. Orlando average just under 3 sacks per game last season (37 in 16 games). A sack in the AFL is good for a minute off the clock. Granted, I'm aware that these are all Orlando-based stats, but I can almost guarantee that Orlando will control the pace of just about any game they play in the Jungle.

If you haven't played the over on the game, don't. Under is the better call, but I'll hardly ever play under 90 in an AFL game. 6 TDs a side is too easy to come by... and even so... 38-38 going into overtime is a recipe to be a loser in the over/under, because overtime states the final score is likely gonna be 48-45 someone. Oh yeah, the last time Orlando LOST a home opener, they lost the game... that's right, in overtime. And the game was still under 90 points (if memory serves the final score was 38-37 Arizona over Orlando and that was 6 years ago... Orlando got the ball first, scored, and then missed the damn extra point. Arizona nailed their PAT after scoring a few plays later... I was at the game... a big travesty).

Leaning: Chicago -6.5 @ Austin: If Raymond Philyaw is really healthy, Chicago is probably gonna blow out Austin in this game. The Wranglers really are amongst the slums in the AFL, and should this game by 6 weeks down the line, the line would probably be 9.5. Check back on Saturday or Sunday for the final decision. The line is down from opening at 7.5 to 7 literally about an hour later, and currently sits at -6.5 at -108.


Best wishes!
--AFLGuru:toast:

(Oh, and just to bring up the irony in the whole thing, I'm a college student who DOESN'T drink beer... but it's a great "AFL face"... When I lose I'll give this face :finger: ... don't worry...)

 

[Avalanche88]

Thanks Guru---I'll be following your progress. Good luck!

 

[olddog]

Ariz/GR '0' 91

A few words of caution on this play. Ariz WRs-Hunkie Cooper and newly acquired star WR-Hlavachec(sp?) are both on IR. Ariz was a slow starter last yr as first three game scores were 32-51 vs LA, 31-48 vs Det, and 45-38 @ awful Carol. These 'old boys' seem to pace themselves early. Does anyone know how they started out in 2003?

For GR, their first three gms last year were 30-50 @ Chico, 37-55 @ Color, and 14-52 vs LV. New QB-Browder didn't show much before getting injd at Phila last year. Granted, they picked up super OS-Chris Jackson (from LA), but also picked up fine DS-Wendall Davis from SJ to go along with cagey vet DS-Doggette.

I'm looking at about 50-40, Arizona, which makes the '0'/'U' a no bet for me.

Good luck; just presenting another opinion on the game.

 

[olddog]

LV to bury LA

Guru - in one of your threads, you mentioned you had a gut feeling that LA would 'suck' this year. I agree. Their offense is decimated and their defense sucked last year. They did bring a highly regarded defensive coordinator in Mike Wilpolt, but I haven't read anywhere they they brought in some good defensive players.

Meanwhile LV still has a potent offense and most of the members of a defense that improved greatly at the end of last year. They won 5 of last 6 gamse (I think) holding SJ & Phila to 35 pts, Indy to 38 and Det to 34.

I think LV whips a brand new LA offense in their opener. So I just took them at -4.5 at BetLasPalmas, as they are up to -5.5 at most other places.

 

[AFLGuru]

Olddog--

A couple things about the o/u first... Last season, in the first week of the season, 7 games were over the number. For some reason, most of the numbers do seem a bit low, as ANY AFL game can get to the magical number of 100, no matter who is involved. No one averages (compositely) less than 93 points per game. Though you are historically right about Arizona, it's because Cooper and Hlvachek (can't spell worth crap but you know whom I'm speaking of) are out that I am on this over. I'm a believer that Grand Rapids can keep this game close for at least 3 quarters. And as you well know, the closer the game in the 4th quarter, the more likely the really good QBs lead charges to end games. That being said, if this game is at 70 after three quarters, I believe our over is safe. Bonner finds ways to get it done. 90 just seems really low. But I have news for you... if the line was set at 92 like it currently is at Pinny, I'd probably lay off. More of a percentage play than anything else.

Now, regarding the LV/LA game, I'm kicking myself.... absolutely kicking myself for not taking LV when the line came out Gladiators +1... that's right +1. I thought there were some strings attached to it, but looking back, it was a terrible move to not bet it. Though you're probably right that LV will kill LA, Ed Hodgekiss always pulls this crap out of his hat. Something about LA always keeping games close. Kaleo will still put some points on the board... Granted, he's not throwing 99 TDs, but he'll get to 70. And if Kaleo keeps the T.O.s down, you and I both know anyone can win on any given day. That all being said, I think it's a great play to take Vegas at a friendly -4.5, but due to the line movement within, I'm going to lay off myself. Great work though, my friend. Your stats are all dead on though. Dolezel lit it up at the end of last year. Hell, Marcus Nash ran away with offensive player of the year with the last 5 games of last season. And the defense was holding teams under 40 left and right, including mighty San Jose (despite the fact they lost the game... Dolezel got hurt in that one if memory serves).

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Just some more information on the Grand Rapids/Arizona game. Last time these two teams played the final score was 82-81. I know it's ancient history and really has 0 meaning to this game, but I figured it was worth throwing out there. It's rough when the AFL guys outscore a Suns/Pistons game...

Countdown to kickoff... 26 hours 42 minutes

--AFLGuru

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

This is interesting.

I'm going to watch your progress and jump aboard if you start hanging around 60%. Best of luck to you this season AFLGuru.

 

[TheGeneral+]

I love arena ball. The birds are gone now so that suks, but if you read up and keep up, great value in this sport. I was offered a tout job 2 yrs ago capping and doing write-ups for Arena, but I refused obviously and there is much more needed TV games.